The cricket team from New Zealand appears to be headed for another World Cup semifinal. In the last four ODI and three T20I World Cups, the Blackcaps have advanced to at least the semifinals, making them the most reliable World Cup team in recent memory.
When they started the 2023 edition with four wins in as many games, it appeared as though a fifth straight ODI World Cup semi-final was only a formality. But Kane Williamson’s team made an almost disastrous error, losing their next four games and facing elimination.
Nonetheless, they rebounded just in time to demolish the hapless Sri Lankans by five wickets in less than 24 overs, ensuring their top-four finish. Their opponents for the fourth and final berth, Afghanistan and Pakistan, will need an amazing miracle to beat them on net run rate.
Hence we can reasonably expect that the upcoming match, between India and New Zealand in the Wankhede Stadium on November 15 will resemble the 2019 World Cup semi final.
Taking into account the disappointment they faced during the tournaments final, against England it is evident that New Zealand has a desire to complete their mission and secure their first ever World Cup championship.
In light of this, let’s examine the three primary worries that still affect New Zealand, even if they are very guaranteed to qualify for the semi-finals.
1. New Zealand’s World Cup worry: Their lower middle-order
Despite the World Cup’s leading run-scorer Rachin Ravindra, skipper Kane Williamson, and middle-order dasher Daryll Mitchell’s red-hot form, New Zealand’s batting leaves a much to be desired.
After Mitchell, hitters either did not bat long enough in important circumstances or battled with form. Tom Latham’s returns remain the biggest concern for the Kiwis as they prepare for a potential semi-final against India.
Following two half-centuries against the Netherlands and Afghanistan to begin his World Cup campaign, the 31-year-old has battled immensely, with only 34 runs in the following five games.
While he has remained undefeated near the conclusion of New Zealand’s batting stretch in the previous two outings, Latham’s average of 11.33 throughout the five-match timeframe was a major contributor to their four-match losing skid.
It is also worth noting that the southpaw has played significant roles in New Zealand’s ODI victories over India in the past, with an average of over 90 at a strike rate of 113.
With an ODI average of over 51 against India, the Blackcaps will need their wicketkeeper-batter to restore form before facing the same opponent in the semi-final.
Glenn Phillips and Mark Chapman, like Latham, have been inconsistent with their batting, with neither playing any game-winning innings. Chapman has only faced 66 pitches throughout the competition and has a batting average of 20.50 in seven games.
Against a quality bowling squad like India’s, New Zealand’s lower middle order issues might raise their ugly heads at the worst possible time.
2. Their Inconsistent Pace Bowling
The setback to the in-form Matt Henry has heightened concerns about the consistency of New Zealand’s speed assault. While Trent Boult, Tim Southee, and Lockie Ferguson’s pedigree is undeniable, their bowling has been erratic throughout the competition.
While Boult returned to form with a 3/37 against Sri Lanka, he had been averaging in the mid 30s in the World Cup before then, with only 10 wickets in eight games. The left-arm pacer’s form is critical against Indian captain Rohit Sharma, whom he has dismissed four times in one-day internationals.
Tim Southee, Boult’s starting partner, has looked horribly out of form since returning to the team to replace the injured Henry. The right-arm bowler has only four wickets in three games, with a poor average of over 40 and a high economy rate of 6.78.
If New Zealand are to pose a danger to India’s fearsome and in-form top order, their pace three must be firing on all cylinders.
3. The Lack of a Dependable Fifth Bowler
To make matters worse, New Zealand’s bowling inconsistency have made it difficult to count on 10 good overs from the fifth bowler.
While Rachin Ravindra has been the World Cup’s breakout batsman, his bowling has fallen short. The left-arm spinner has only taken five wickets in nine games, with an average of 66.60 and an economy rate of more than 5.60 runs per over.
Jimmy Neesham, the second alternative, has performed even worse, with two scalps in three games at an average of 78.50 and a 10+ economy rate. It has forced the Kiwis to rely on Glenn Phillips as a part-time off-spinner.
While he has surprise pleased with six wickets at an average of 33.71, using him against the powerful Indian batting in the semi-final will be a huge bet. The 10 overs from the fifth bowling option might be highly costly, ultimately costing New Zealand’s prospects in the knockout stage.