The 2023 World Cup has currently played 30 matches. However, due to the round-robin system, in which each team plays the other nine teams once in the league stage, none of the ten competing nations are now assured a semi-final spot.
Team India, the home team, is in a great spot to rank in the top four – maybe even grab the No. 1 rank when the 2023 World Cup league stage wraps up. After completing six games each, the Men in Blue stand out as the sole squad yet to be defeated. Their scoreboard? An impressive 12 points and a net run rate of +1.405.
South Africa is second in the 2023 World Cup after 30 matches, with 10 points and a net run rate of +2.032. With eight points apiece, New Zealand and Australia are third and fourth. The Kiwis (+1.232) outperform the Aussies (+0.970) in net run rate. Afghanistan is a surprising fifth place finisher, with three victories and a run rate of (-0.718).
Teams outside the top five may potentially climb the points ladder and secure a semi-final spot in the 2023 World Cup with some tricky permutations and combinations. Here’s the skinny.
How Many Points Do Teams Need to Reach the 2023 World Cup Semi-Finals?
A team that scores 14 points is sure to enter the semi-finals. Why? Because teams not in the current top four can’t even touch 14 points. Take Afghanistan, for instance. They’re at six points now. Even if they triumph in every one of their last three games, they’ll only make it to 12.
Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands each have four points and may finish with a total of ten. Bangladesh and England both have two points, thus their combined total is eight.
How Many Teams Have Been Eliminated from the 2023 World Cup Semi-Final Race?
Mathematically, all ten teams are still in the running. In practice, however, Bangladesh and England’s prospects of finishing in the top four are very tiny, while Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands also face a difficult road ahead in terms of qualifying ambitions.
Afghanistan sits at position five now. Should they triumph in the last three matches, their score will hit 12. Yet, tough opponents await. South Africa and Australia are two among the three. Three victories don’t assure them a spot in the top four, though. New Zealand and Australia have eight points each. So, the net run rate may become the tie-breaker if both the Kiwis and the Aussies end up with 12 points too.
Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands must win all three of their remaining games while also increasing their net run rate. This will bring them up to ten points. New Zealand, Australia, and Afghanistan must not score more than 10 points in order to finish in the top four.
South Africa is also on 10 top points, so if they lose all three games, they would also end on 10, complicating matters even more.
To finish with eight points, Bangladesh and England must win all three of their remaining games by large scores. However, this will not suffice.
They will require New Zealand and Australia to lose their final three games by big scores in order to stay on eight, and their net run rate will be influenced as well. They must also hope that Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands do not score eight points.
Is There a Chance for India to Miss Out on the Top Four in 2023 World Cup?
Technically, there’s a slight chance. India currently holds 12 points from their six games – they haven’t lost a single match yet. If they secure a win in one of their last three games, a spot in the semi-finals locked in, giving them 14 points.
Even if they suffer defeats in their remaining three matches, ending with 12 points, they can still be among the top four teams in 2023 World Cup. How? By having a superior net run rate compared to other teams possessing identical point totals.
What about South Africa, Australia and New Zealand?
For a guaranteed spot in the 2023 World Cup semi-finals, South Africa needs to claim victory in two of their next three matches. This would put them at 14 points. Yet, they could possibly still break into the top four, even if they only manage to win one more match.
Outside of the top four, there’s only one other team that could reach a tally of 12 points. That one is Afghanistan. The net run rate scenario will then be used. South Africa might still be eliminated if they lose their final three games. In this case, they will be locked on 10 points. Afghanistan may overtake them if they win their final three games.
If Afghanistan loses one of their final three games and Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands all win all three, they will tie South Africa on 10 points, with the net run rate factored in.
With two successive losses, New Zealand has dropped to third place. They will end with 14 points if they win their final three matches. If they lose one of the three games, they will end with 12 points, putting Afghanistan back into the picture.
The Kiwis might be in big danger if they lose two of their final three 2023 World Cup matches. They will then finish on 10 points and will require a higher net run rate if numerous teams finish on 10 points.
Australia, similar to New Zealand, holds eight points from six games. A streak of four unbroken wins is boosting their momentum. Attaining wins in the trio of remaining games would seal their top-four place.
Securing victories in two out of their three remaining games will amount to 12 points. This should suffice if the run rate benefits them. Though, akin to the Kiwis, complications might arise if their defeats extend to two out of three of these games, ending up with a total of 10 points.
The fact that Australia’s last three 2023 World Cup matches are against England, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh works in their advantage. Given their present form, they will bet on winning all three.